Housing markets under-respond to climate risk, and the households most exposed bear the cost. The organising idea is the boiling frog: a hazard rises gradually, a household forms an intent to adapt while a recent event is salient, then defers and abandons it as the salience fades. We are dreamers, not doers, so the market under-capitalises the risk. Search reorients but does not convert into moves or into capitalised prices, and the little adaptation that happens favours the well-off, so the under-response is regressive.
This programme documents that behavioural under-capitalisation across three UK-relevant perils, using the same Rightmove search and listing micro-data that let us see the intent layer realised-transaction data cannot. The three perils are parallel, not sequential, and each takes one facet of the under-response. The diagram reads each column top to bottom: the risk, the data and methods behind it, and its findings. Every box links to its detail, each findings box to the evidence behind it, and each data-and-methods box to its variable definitions, sources, and statistics.
One platform, three perils. Each column is a paper; read it top to bottom: the climate risk, its data and methods, then its findings. Colour marks the peril. Click any data-and-methods box or findings box for its detail.